AccuWeather reports a s a strong El Niño fades, the weather across the country will slowly change. In much of the eastern United States, a hot summer is in store.

Rain and thunderstorms will dominate the pattern in the central and southern Plains, while the opposite occurs in California and the Northwest, and scarce rainfall leads to severe drought conditions.

Northeast, mid-Atlantic: Heat to come on strong in early summer

Heat will come on strong in June for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including in New York City, Boston, and Hartford, Connecticut. However, severe weather in July could turn the warm pattern on its head.

“July is a tricky month where there may be a few cooldowns from thunderstorms and back door fronts, but other than that I think June, July and August, you'll see your series of heat waves,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
 
For the season as a whole, numerous 90-degree days will be recorded from Boston to Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.

Late in the season, the intense heat will lead to increasingly dry conditions, which could boost the fire threat across the Northeast.

Southeast, Gulf Coast: Tropical threats may hold off until late summer

Heat will also extend down into the Southeast and Gulf Coast; however, humidity will be higher than in areas farther north.

The lingering effects of El Niño will limit the chances of early season tropical development, but activity will ramp up during the month of August.

“With a trend toward a La Niña pattern, along with warming waters and less wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, this can lead to impacts anywhere on the Gulf Coast and including the east coast of Florida,” Pastelok said.

After heavy spring rainfall for the Gulf Coast, above-normal rain for the summer season may lead to bouts of flooding.

Hot, dry pattern to grip the Midwest and northern Plains

Dryness and heat will be another common theme in the Midwest and northern Plains states.

Heat will develop late spring and early summer across these areas and tighten its grip throughout the season.

“Actually we are seeing evidence of this in parts of the region already,” Pastelok said. “If the rest of the spring works out as planned, then these areas may fall into a drought with frequent heat waves during the summer.”

Indianapolis, Indiana, Chicago and Minneapolis could enter a minor to moderate drought, he said.

Southern Plains, Southwest: Rain, thunderstorms may keep summer temperatures down
 
While much of the country will endure above-normal temperatures this season, the southern Plains region may be the only exception.

Rainfall and thunderstorms will be frequent over this region, keeping temperatures at bay.

“Abnormally dry conditions already present in eastern New Mexico, the northern Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas are expected to persist, although there will be enough chances for rain to prevent conditions from deteriorating to widespread significant drought,” Pastelok said.

In the Southwest, a weaker monsoon season is forecast overall, despite a strong start in July. The pattern will quickly trail off in August, leading to normal to slightly above-normal precipitation.

Despite the rain, the risk for fires will be high due to increased wind.

El Niño's aid not enough for the West; Drought to rebuild across the region

Though the El Niño pattern brought much-needed rain to northern and central California, Southern California wasn't quite as lucky. Drought will remain in this area and intensify into the summer season.

“We have a long-term drought going on and we didn't get much rain in Southern California, so Los Angeles, Burbank, Riverside – they're still in drought conditions. They're going to feel the heat there,” Pastelok said.

Wildfires will also be a significant threat.

In the Northwest and much of central and northern California, El Niño led to a wetter-than-normal winter, but it fell short of what was needed to eliminate the drought.

“The Northwest and northern California are coming off a good winter and spring with rainfall and snowfall,” Pastelok said.

However, it wasn't enough to provide long-term relief.

Significant drought conditions may return in the middle and latter part of summer and may result in another year of rampant wildfires for northern California and the Northwest.
 
Alex Sosnowski is a senior meteorologist for www.AccuWeather.com .

A new study suggests Covered California’s authority to select health insurers successfully held down premium costs.

The research was published in the May issue of Health Affairs, and was conducted at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health in collaboration with New York University’s Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service.

“Covered California is one of the few ACA Marketplaces that directly negotiates premiums with insurers,” said Richard Scheffler, lead author and Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and Public Policy at UC Berkeley. “Our study suggests that these negotiations successfully constrained premiums during the early years of the marketplaces.”

"This is important research that underscores the direct impact on premiums of hospital market concentration and the potentially critical role marketplaces can play for consumers,” said Peter V. Lee, executive director of Covered California. “Covered California strives to get the best value for consumers. Our ability to negotiate rates, networks, and product quality with insurers is important for enabling us to accomplish this goal.”

The study looked at the growth in health-insurance premiums from 2014 to 2015 in two state-based Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces: Covered California and NY State of Health.

Under the ACA, marketplaces can either accept all insurers who seek to participate or select a limited number of insurers to sell coverage.

New York chose the first course, permitting all willing insurers to join the marketplace; California chose the second, selecting just 12 insurers to participate (based on rates, for the most part) and rejecting 20 insurers who had shown interest in offering coverage.

In both states, areas with less hospital competition experienced larger premium increases between 2014 and 2015. But the effect of insurer competition differed dramatically across the states.

In New York, premiums grew faster in the areas with less insurer competition. In California, by contrast, areas with less insurer competition saw slower premium growth than areas with more insurer competition.

The California Marketplace’s ability to exclude insurers seemed to give it the leverage to force insurers in concentrated markets to pass on to consumers the savings they obtained from their strong bargaining positions with providers.

“Our study demonstrates the potential of allowing third parties to use their purchasing power to ensure that negotiating better health care prices benefits consumers, not insurers," said Sherry Glied, dean and professor of public service at NYU Wagner. “The choice between regulation and competition is a false one. To best manage our health care system, we will need both.”

"Health care consolidation is taking place at an accelerated pace” said Brent Fulton, an assistant adjunct professor of health economics and policy at UC Berkeley. “Going forward, policy makers must ensure health insurers aren’t able to exercise their increased market power on consumers. Structuring other ACA Marketplaces like Covered California may be a step in the right direction.”

The authors say that given the importance of the ACA Marketplaces for providing individual health insurance coverage, it is critical to further evaluate the current effectiveness of the Marketplaces, and to find ways in which the Marketplaces could be improved.

The study was funded by the Nicholas C. Petris Center on Health Care Markets and Consumer Welfare, at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, and the Commonwealth Fund (Grant No. 20160413).

Robert Sanders writes for the UC Berkeley News Center.

CLEARLAKE, Calif. – An Oakland man is being held on $300,000 bail for kidnapping, sexual assault and numerous other charges after he was taken into custody by Clearlake Police officers on Sunday.

Ricky Roberts, 51, was arrested Sunday afternoon, according to a report from Sgt. Martin Snyder.

On Sunday Clearlake Police officers responded to the 15100 block of Lakeview Avenue for a report of a battery, Snyder said.

On the officers' arrival they contacted a victim, who stated that she was kidnapped at gunpoint from another county and forced to come to the city of Clearlake by a male, later identified as Roberts, Snyder said.

Snyder said the woman told officers that, once at a residence in Clearlake, Roberts attempted to sexually assault her. The victim began to physically resist Roberts, who discharged pepper spray or a mace-type agent onto the victim's face.

The victim was able to escape from Roberts and the residence, ran to a neighboring home and requested law enforcement be notified, Snyder said.

Snyder said the victim told officers that Roberts was at the neighboring residence with a firearm and that another individual may be being held against their will inside of the residence. The woman also said that Roberts was in possession of a large quantity of suspected narcotics.

The officers went to the residence and contacted Roberts as he was attempting to escape over the rear fence. Roberts was taken into custody without further incident, according to Snyder.

While the officers were in the rear yard of the residence, Snyder said they observed numerous growing marijuana plants and a large caliber firearm Roberts had attempted to hide. The officers conducted a protective sweep of the interior of the residence in an attempt to locate any further victims or suspects, but found no one else to be at the residence.

While conducting the sweep of the residence the officers discovered that portions of the interior of the residence had been converted to an indoor marijuana growing operation. Snyder said that, based on their observations, the officers believed the residence was a commercial marijuana growing operation.

Detectives from the Clearlake Police Department were notified and took over the investigation. A search warrant was approved and executed on the residence. During the execution of the search warrant evidence in regard to the sexual assault was located, Snyder said.

Additionally, Snyder said 72 growing marijuana plants and a large amount of dried and processed marijuana were located along with approximately 110 grams of cocaine, approximately 20 grams of heroin and other evidence indicative of the sales of narcotics were located.

A review of Robert’s criminal history showed him to be a convicted felon with a prison term served for the sale of narcotics; as a result, Snyder said Roberts is not allowed to own or possess firearms or ammunition.

Roberts also was found to be in possession of approximately $5,800 in U.S. currency of numerous denominations, Snyder said.

Based on the investigation, Snyder said Roberts was arrested for the violations of kidnapping, false imprisonment, oral copulation, sodomy with force, use of a tear gas weapon, armed in the commission of a felony, felon in possession of a firearm, felon in possession of ammunition, cultivation of marijuana, possession of marijuana for sale and possession of narcotics for sale, according to Snyder.

Additionally, Snyder said the U.S. currency Roberts was found to be in possession of is believed to be from the sale of narcotics and was seized pursuant to asset forfeiture proceedings authorized by the Lake County District Attorney’s Office. 

Roberts was booked into the Lake County Jail with a bail of $300,000. He was scheduled to be in court on Tuesday, according to jail records.

During Motorcycle Safety Awareness Month this May the California Highway Patrol and the California Office of Traffic Safety will work together to share an important message: motorcycle safety is just as important to vehicle drivers as it is to motorcyclists.

“Vehicle drivers and motorcyclists share responsibility for creating a safe roadway environment,” said CHP Commissioner Joe Farrow. “Drivers must be aware that motorcycles may be closer than they seem and motorcyclists must always ride defensively.”

California has 862,705 registered motorcycles and more than 1.4 million licensed riders, according to the California Department of Motor Vehicles.

Throughout the spring and summer, officials said the number of motorcyclists on the road will increase.

“California is the best state for motorcycling, for both recreation and commuting,” said Rhonda Craft, OTS director. “To make it the safest state for motorcycling, both riders and drivers need to share the road with awareness and caution for all users.”

Preliminary estimates from the CHP’s Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System show the number of collisions involving motorcycles increased in 2014, up more than 4 percent from 2013.

The number of people killed in motorcycle-involved collisions increased by nearly 11 percent, from 475 killed in 2013 to 527 killed in 2014, according to the data.

Motorcyclists are more vulnerable to collisions than other drivers. Motorcyclists can defend themselves by following the rules of the road and wearing protective gear, including a proper helmet.

Most collisions occur when a vehicle driver fails to see a motorcyclist and turns left in front of the rider. Motorcyclists can help protect themselves by always using turn signals and avoiding riding in a vehicle’s blind spot, officials said.

Since collisions can happen to anyone, regardless of age or experience, the CHP strongly encourages all riders enroll in the California Motorcyclist Safety Program (CMSP).

The CMSP, developed in 1987, graduated its one-millionth student in late 2015. It offers courses for both the novice and experienced rider.

“Through training and continued education, the CMSP’s goal is to make motorcycling safer and more enjoyable while helping to keep motorcyclists from becoming a statistic,” said Commissioner Farrow.

Several activities are planned in communities throughout the state to recognize May as Motorcycle Safety Awareness Month.

In addition, the CMSP is conducting a statewide media campaign in May and June with motorcycle safety messages on radio and television, in social media and on billboards.